一种特别有害的情况是士气低落。士气大致是指「相信如果你努力工作，你的境况就会改善」的信念。如果你的士气低落，你就无法克服逆境。通过标准的理性主义生活优化（rationalist life-optimization），也很容易在不经意间降低你的士气。
人们很容易为了追求福祉（wellbeing）而进行优化，却忽略了影响士气的因素，尤其是当你正在从事某些重要的事情时，比如防止全人类灭绝（not having everyone die）。一个例子是在一家每天为你提供三餐的办公室工作。这看起来是最优的：吃饭很愉快，而做饭很费劲。显而易见的选择。
示例
但士气并不源于拥有美好的事物。考虑一个富有的青少年。他基本上所有的物质需求都得到了满足：女佣打扫卫生，厨师做饭，他的家人每年带他度假四次。当这个孩子在学校遇到真正困难的事情时会发生什么？他可能无法坚持下去。
「啊哈，」我听到你会说，「那个孩子从未面对过逆境。他当然处理不好。」好吧，假设他每天都被踢小腿，还被当地的一些年轻人骂成「纨绔子弟（posh twat）」，但他仍然坚持去上学。那是逆境，这会有用吗？他现在的士气会更高吗？我不这么认为。
那么，如果他在学校管弦乐队拉大提琴呢？或者他在学校足球队踢球？我认为这可能会奏效，即使他不是学校里这两项活动中表现最好的孩子。这不在于拥有美好的事物还是糟糕的事物，而在于其他一些东西。
II
士气源于生活中美好的事物与努力程度相关联。自己做晚餐基本上是「微量摄入（microdosing，指小剂量使用）」投入努力后的回报：如果你付出努力，你就能吃到黑椒汁牛排配薯条。如果你不努力，你就只能吃鸡肉配米饭。
不一定非得是烹饪，基本上任何爱好都是这样运作的，只要你能获得努力的回报。它可以是艺术、举重或其他任何事情。你只需要不断提醒你的大脑，努力是有目的的。
当你在一个努力的回报难以获得的领域工作时（比如防止全人类灭绝），这一点尤为重要。优秀的软件工程看起来像是用一天左右的时间解决一个 PR（Pull Request，拉取请求，或者你们这些人做的任何事情）。优秀的对齐研究（alignment research，指人工智能对齐）可能意味着追寻一个概念数周，结果却以失败告终。
约会的早期阶段也可能导致士气低落。有时，事情仅仅因为并非你过错的随机不兼容而分崩离析。长期关系则大不相同：你可以直接采取行动（与伴侣计划约会并享受他们的陪伴）。
约翰·温特沃斯（John Wentworth）曾写过，在理性主义者群体中，轻度抑郁表现为极低的士气。我认为你不应该等到情况变得那么糟糕才去提高你的士气。我认为你现在就应该考虑这个问题。
III
士气不仅在个人层面很重要，在整个社会层面也很重要。在这种情况下，重要的不仅是个人是否因努力而获得奖励，还在于他们是否看到他人因努力而获得奖励——以及他们是否看到他人因不努力而受到惩罚。
一个不争的事实是，扼杀士气最有效的方法就是奖励懒惰或无能的员工。如果你奖励积极的破坏行为，效果会更好。细微但显而易见的犯罪（如在公共交通工具上逃票）所造成的危害，部分在于对周围所有人士气的破坏。
不过，社会士气应该有一个「捷径（hack）」，那就是经济增长。人们通常会在工作中投入一定的努力。如果他们每年都能买得起更好的车，他们会将其归功于自己的毅力，而不是中国工厂生产力的提高。
不幸的是，情况又发生了反转。人们非常不擅长理解名义通货膨胀（nominal inflation）。如果价格上涨了一点（即使他们的工资涨幅超过了物价涨幅），价格上涨感觉起来就像是一种随机的、不公平的、降低士气的损失。我推测这是导致美国「氛围衰退（Vibecession，指经济数据良好但民众情绪低落的现象）」的一个重要原因。
One particularly pernicious condition is low morale. Morale is, roughly, "the belief that if you work hard, your conditions will improve." If your morale is low, you can't push through adversity. It's also very easy to accidentally drop your morale through standard rationalist life-optimization.
It's easy to optimize for wellbeing and miss out on the factors which affect morale, especially if you're working on something important, like not having everyone die. One example is working at an office that feeds you three meals per day. This seems optimal: eating is nice, and cooking is effort. Obvious choice.
Example
But morale doesn't come from having nice things. Consider a rich teenager. He gets basically every material need satisfied: maids clean, chefs cook, his family takes him on holiday four times a year. What happens when this kid comes up against something really difficult in school? He probably doesn't push through.
"Aha", I hear you say. "That kid has never faced adversity. Of course he's not going to handle it well." Ok, suppose he gets kicked in the shins every day and called a posh twat by some local youths, but still goes into school. That's adversity, will that work? Will he have higher morale now? I don't think so.
Now, what about if he plays the cello in the school orchestra. Or he plays for the school football team. I think that might work, even if he's not the best kid in the school at either of those things. It's not about having nice things or having bad things, it's about something else
II
Morale comes from having the nice things in your life correlated with effort . Cooking your own dinner is basically microdosing returns to investing effort: if you put in effort, you eat steak frites with peppercorn sauce. If you don't, you get eat chicken and rice.
It doesn't have to be cooking, basically any hobby works like this, as long as you get returns to effort. It might be art, or weightlifting, or whatever. You just need to keep reminding your brain that effort has a purpose.
This is especially important when you work in an area (like not having everyone die) where the returns on effort are hard to come by. Good software engineering looks like solving a PR in a day or so (or whatever you people do). Good alignment research might mean chasing a concept for weeks, only to have it fail.
The early stages of dating can also induce low morale. Sometimes, things just fall apart due to random incompatibilities which aren't your fault. Long-term relationships are much less like this: you can just do things (plan dates with your partner and enjoy their company).
John Wentworth has written about a minor depression presenting as extremely low morale amongst rationalist types. I don't think you should wait until it gets that bad before you improve your morale. I think you should think about it now.
III
Morale doesn't just matter on an individual level, it also matters on the scale of whole societies. In this case, it doesn't just matter whether an individual gets rewarded for effort, it matters whether they see others rewarded for effort---and whether or not they see others punished for a lack of effort.
It's a truism that the most effective way to kill morale is to reward lazy or incompetent employees. You can do one better if you reward active sabotage. The harm of small but visible crimes (like fare-dodging on public transport) is, in part, the damage to the morale of everyone around.
There should be a hack for societal morale, though, and it's economic growth. People generally put some amount of effort into their work. If they can afford a better car each year, they'll attribute that to their own grit, and not an increase in the productivity of a Chinese factory.
Unfortunately, there's a twist in the twist. People are really awful at understanding nominal inflation. If the price goes up a bit (even if their wages more than match it) the price increase just feels like a random, unfair, morale-reducing loss. I conjecture this is a big contributor to the American Vibecession.